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Harga CPO Turun, Begini Prospeknya di Tahun 2023

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Harga minyak sawit mentah alias crude palm oil (CPO) berada dalam tren penurunan sejak Maret 2023. Berdasarkan data tradingeconomics.com, harga palm oil pada Jumat (24/3) ditutup di RM 3.504 per ton, merosot 15,89% dari akhir Februari 2023 yang berada di RM 4.166 per ton.

Chief Analyst DCFX Futures Lukman Leong mengatakan, faktor utama penurunan harga CPO berasal dari bank sentral dunia The Fed yang masih terus menaikkan suku bunga acuannya di tengah ketidakpastian ekonomi dan kejatuhan bank-bank. Kondisi tersebut dikhawatirkan dapat memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi sehingga menurunkan permintaan CPO.

Ringgit Malaysia yang menguat sejak akhir tahun lalu juga turut menekan harga CPO. Selain itu, harga CPO juga mengikuti harga komoditas minyak mentah dan gas alam yang terus turun. “Dari sisi permintaan juga suram. Impor India merosot 30% pada bulan Februari 2023 dibanding bulan sebelumnya, terendah dalam delapan bulan,” kata Lukman saat dihubungi Kontan.co.id, Jumat (24/3).

Presiden Komisioner HFX International Berjangka Sutopo Widodo menambahkan, penurunan harga CPO terjadi karena ada kekhawatiran bahwa permintaan akan turun terus-menerus.

Langkah Rusia dan Ukraina yang memperpanjang perjanjian mereka untuk mengamankan perdagangan biji-bijian melalui Laut Hitam juga menjadi faktor penyebab lainnya. Kesepakatan tersebut membuat harga minyak rapeseed dan minyak bunga matahari mencatatkan penurunan sehingga ikut menyeret harga minyak nabati lainnya.

“Selain itu, permintaan bahan baku biofuel terhambat oleh jatuhnya harga minyak mentah yang disebabkan oleh gejolak sektor keuangan di seluruh dunia dan peningkatan tak terduga persediaan AS,” tutur Sutopo.

Untuk ke depannya, Lukman melihat, harga CPO masih akan terus tertekan sepanjang tahun ini. Ia memperkirakan, harga CPO berada di kisaran RM 3.350-RM 3.600 per ton pada semester I-2023 dan RM 3.100-RM 3.300 per ton hingga akhir tahun 2023.

“Sentimen utama adalah permintaan yang melamban oleh perlambatan serta ketidakpastian ekonomi yang diperparah oleh potensi credit crunch oleh kegagalan bank-bank akhir ini,” tutur Lukman. Oleh sebab itu, ia menyarankan investor untuk menghindari berinvestasi di komoditas CPO terlebih dahulu. Menurutnya, permintaan tidak akan membaik selama ekonomi masih terus menurun. Lukman memperkirakan, permintaan baru akan meningkat di akhir tahun ini atau awal tahun 2024 ketika ekonomi sudah mulai meningkat. Sutopo juga memprediksi, CPO akan diperdagangkan secara rata-rata di RM 3.477,82 per ton dalam waktu 12 bulan. Ia menyarankan investor untuk wait and see terlebih dahulu sambil memantau perkembangan kondisi perekonomian dan permintaan CPO.

Source: Harga CPO Turun, Begini Prospeknya Pada Tahun 2023 (kontan.co.id)

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