Rendahnya Produksi Minyak Sawit dan Tingginya Permintaan di RamadHan, Bakal Mendongkrak Harga Sawit
Kondisi cuaca basah telah mengurangi produksi minyak sawit Indonesia 2022/23 menjadi 46,5 juta metrik ton (mt), turun kurang dari 1% dari pembaruan terakhir, lantas meningkatnya risiko banjir dan berkurangnya area tanam menurunkan perkiraan produksi minyak sawit Malaysia periode 2022/23 menjadi 18,7 juta mt, turun kurang dari 1% dari laporan sebelumnya.
Dilansir Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC), impor minyak sawit dunia tahun 2022/23 diperkirakan mencapai 49,5 juta mt, sedikit lebih rendah dari perkiraan bulan lalu sebesar 49,6 juta mt, dan naik 15,9% dari musim 2021/22.
“Permintaan global untuk minyak sawit diperkirakan akan didukung oleh harga minyak sawit yang terus-menerus didiskon besar-besaran dibandingkan minyak nabati saingannya, dan prospek pertumbuhan impor yang lebih tinggi dari negara-negara konsumen utama,” demikian catat MPOC dalam informasinya yang diperoleh InfoSAWIT, Rabu (8/2/2023).
Lantas, rendahnya musim panen dan kondisi cuaca basah yang tidak menguntungkan pada minggu kedua di Januari mempertahankan risiko banjir yang tinggi, memicu kekhawatiran atas pasokan minyak sawit.
Selain itu muncul kekhawatiran atas rendahnya panen bunga matahari di Ukraina akibat perang. Serta situasi kekeringan, dan kerapatan vegetasi yang rendah di Argentina yang kemungkinan akan memperburuk hasil panen kedelai termasuk dampak dari transisi La Niña menjadi El Niño.
Sementara, di sisi permintaan, penguatan Ringgit Malaysia dan Rupiah Indonesia mendorong minyak kelapa sawit menjadi sedikit mahal bagi pembeli internasional. Stok minyak sawit yang tinggi di banyak negara tujuan utama (termasuk China, India, dll.), musim dingin, dan liburan Tahun Baru Imlek membatasi ekspor selama bulan Januari. Namun catat MPOC, permintaan minyak sawit diperkirakan akan meningkat menjelang Ramadan, yang jatuh pada Maret 2022.
Negara-negara yang merayakan festival tersebut biasanya akan meningkatkan pembelian untuk memenuhi permintaan hari raya. “Harga minyak sawit yang lebih rendah dibanding minyak nabati lainnya tetap menarik, yang mungkin masih mendukung pembelian minyak sawit dari negara pengimpor,” catat MPOC.
- Tags : cpo, gapki, palm oil, sally maritime
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